Mid-Year Index Review
a look at the record highs
It was only a week ago that people were yammering on about World War III, and yet here we are: lifetime highs on most equity indexes. It's rather stunning. Most of the best-known cash indexes have quietly moved up to levels, as the President so often likes to say of many things, "the likes of which have never been seen before."
The Dow 30 Industrial Average didn't quite make it, however, which I suppose is the just punishment for any index not loaded with AI stocks.
Its companion, the Dow 20 Transportation Average, likewise is well beneath lifetime highs. In fact, it's one of the few indexes which is still in a plausibly bearish configuration.
After over a week of trying to wrest itself loose from its own trendline, the semiconductor index finally succeeded in doing so early this week, and it broke its sequence of lower highs. It is not at a lifetime high price itself, however, even though its biggest component, NVDA, is.
The gold sector index is in a very clear long-term pattern. About a week ago, it tagged a multi-decade resistance line, and it is starting to slip away from those lifetime highs. There could be many, many months to go before this index reaches a sustainable, long-term bottom, assuming it's going to wander back to its support trendline as it has so many times before.
Fear has left the building, and volatility is near the lowest part of its post-election range.
Lastly, I still hold on to one last wispy tidbit of hope that the small caps analog will come through. The Russell 2000 is still configured just as it was at the end of March 2022, but it really needs to start breaking down in a meaningful way in July if this is ever going to work out.
