Quicker Recovery

how long must we wait for palladium now?

Let’s talk about palladium...............again! This touches on precious metals in general, but it specifically homes in on my obsession for 2025, which is PALL and /PA. As I’ve repeated to every sentient being on the planet, I had a profitable year with palladium, but my monster screw-up was dumping all, and I mean all, of my position back around Thanksgiving. Practically the next day, PALL started a blast-off that sent it soaring on a nearly daily basis, and it was absolute torture for me to witness the exact thing I predicted transpire without me participated. It’s an awful feeling and really toxic to one’s self-image.

I was thus elated to see PALL get absolutely creamed today, because it opened up the prospect of another opportunity to get in at a decent price and stop despising myself. Now, let me be clear - - I do not think that one day of selling suddenly makes things cheap (and I’ve read this evening from some well-known analysts that they figure today’s all it would take to make metals cheap and popular again). Instead, what I decided to do was to look at the time periods for the “peak to trough” instances over the past couple of years.

Let’s start off with the first half of 2024, before I had even one inkling of interest in palladium. In retrospect, we can see this was the peak-to-trough move that established the market’s bottom. It took 157 bars, and the metal found a low in the middle of the year.